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Authors : 1. Sergey Yu. Malkov,
Doctor of Engineering, Professor, Leading Researcher
Institute for Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences
2. Stanislav E. Bilyuga,
Lecturer of the Department of Globalistics of the Faculty of Global Processes
Moscow State University named after M. V. Lomonosov
3. Olga I. Davydova,
analyst
Limited Liability company "iDecide Consulting"
Forecast of the dynamics of world import by commodity groups
Objective: to forecast the structure and volume of world imports by commodity groups.
Methods: statistical processing of global trade data with Big Data methods, regression and correlation analysis.
Results: the Russian economy needs to restructure exports. To solve this problem, it is important to assess and forecast the global demand for certain goods. The article presents the results of the analysis of the main trends and forecasts of the development of individual industries, as well as their place in the global trade. It is shown that in accordance with the forecasts of analysts, there are significant prospects in the coming years in the fields of pharmaceutics, automotive industry, aircraft production, telecommunications, etc. UNCTAD data with a sample of product groups for each country were used to model the forecast demand for product groups. As a result of the trends modeling, the article identifies the main product categories that will have the greatest growth in the global trade. It is established that the constructed forecasts correspond to the data of economic research and forecasts of analytical companies. The article also determines the relationship between imports of goods by country and various indicators. The indicators that are characterized by the highest level of correlation with the studied product categories are revealed. On the basis of the obtained results, the conclusions are formulated about the most promising sectors for Russian exports in order to transit to a non-resource economy.
Scientific novelty: the technique is developed, which enables to make long-term forecasts of trade dynamics of large volumes of data.
Practical significance: the results of the forecast should be used to determine the priorities of Russia’s industrial policy aimed at accelerated transition to a non-resource economy.
Keywords :
Economy and management of national economy; Structure of world import; Forecasting technique; Directions of industrial policy
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Citation :
Malkov S. Yu., Bilyuga S. E., Davydova O. I. Forecast of the dynamics of world import by commodity groups, Actual Problems of Economics and Law, 2018, vol. 12, No. 3, pp. 502–522 (in Russ.). DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21202/1993-047X.12.2018.3. 502-522
Type of article : The scientific article
Date of receipt of the article :
06.07.2018
Date of adoption of the print :
12.09.2018
Date of online accommodation :
25.09.2018
