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Actual Problems of
Economics and Law

 

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DOI: 10.21202/1993-047X.13.2019.2.1129-1139

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Authors :
1. Gennagiy A. Shcherbakov, Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Department “Systemic Analysis in Economics”
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation



Indicators of economic conjuncture for constructing small-dimensional prognostic systems: “Energy hint” by S. A. Podolinskiy


Objective: to develop methods for constructing small predictive systems for determining the changing trends of  the economic situation.


Method: process, system, abstract-logical, conceptual-methodological methods.


Results: the scientific approaches to the definition of economic activity indicators are analyzed, the shortcomings and limitations of the leading factors method is identified. The method of indicative component of production cost is developed and presented, focused on the use in the creation of small-size predictive systems. The method implies the presence of an indicative component in the cost of production that translates the relationship with the economic cycle dynamics at the subsequent stages of the production process. The use of the energy component of the production cost as an indicator of changes in the macroeconomic situation is scientifically substantiated.


Scientific novelty: based on the summarized ideas of the Russian and foreign economists, the article presents options for solving the problem of finding the economic activity indicators, as well as the principles of disaggregated predictive models construction. The basis is the author’s method of indicative components of the production cost, developing the M. I. Tugan-Baranovsky’s idea on the presence of indicative properties in certain materials used for the I division production, related to the change of current trends in the dynamics of the economic conjuncture. Based on the first-ever synthesis of this idea with the “energy” views by S. A. Podolinsky, the practice-oriented approach to the study of the economic systems dynamics is formed.


Practical significance: orientation of the work provisions, results and conclusions to be widely used in solving the problems of effective economic management. The work includes practical solutions for the formation of small-scale predictive systems for further application in the interests of the real economy.


Keywords :

theory of economics; economic forecasting; method of leading factors; cost of production; economic development


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Citation :

Shcherbakov G. A. Indicators of economic conjuncture for constructing small-dimensional prognostic systems: “Energy hint” by S. A. Podolinskiy, Actual Problems of Economics and Law, 2019, vol. 13, No. 2, pp. 1129–1139 (in Russ.). DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21202/1993-047X.13.2019.2.1129-1139


Type of article : The scientific article

Date of receipt of the article :
17.02.2019

Date of adoption of the print :
30.03.2019

Date of online accommodation :
25.06.2019