скачать PDF
Authors : 1. Svetlana O. Musienko,
post-graduate student of the Department of Corporate Finance and Corporate Management
University for Finance of the Government of the Russian Federation
Financial analysis and forecasting of the results of small businesses performance based on regression model
Objective: to develop the economic-mathematical model of the dependence of revenue on other balance sheet items, taking into account the sectoral affiliation of the companies.
Methods: using comparative analysis, the article studies the existing approaches to the construction of the company management models. Applying the regression analysis and the least squares method, which is widely used for financial management of enterprises in Russia and abroad, the author builds a model of the dependence of revenue on other balance sheet items, taking into account the sectoral affiliation of the companies, which can be used in the financial analysis and prediction of small enterprises’ performance.
Results: the article states the need to identify factors affecting the financial management efficiency. The author analyzed scientific research and revealed the lack of comprehensive studies on the methodology for assessing the small enterprises’ management, while the methods used for large companies are not always suitable for the task. The systematized approaches of various authors to the formation of regression models describe the influence of certain factors on the company activity. It is revealed that the resulting indicators in the studies were revenue, profit, or the company relative profitability. The main drawback of most models is the mathematical, not economic approach to the definition of the dependent and independent variables. Basing on the analysis, it was determined that the most correct is the model of dependence between revenues and total assets of the company using the decimal logarithm. The model was built using data on the activities of the 507 small businesses operating in three spheres of economic activity. Using the presented model, it was proved that there is direct dependence between the sales proceeds and the main items of
the asset balance, as well as differences in the degree of this effect depending on the economic activity of small enterprises.
Scientific novelty: the article presents a regression model of dependence of revenues on the major categories of assets for small businesses based on the principles of economic expediency, not of mathematically correct dependencies.
Practical significance: the main findings of this paper can be useful in the practical management of small businesses, for financial analysis and forecasting, in particular in the benchmarking of companies in certain sectors. In addition, the results of this research can be used in scientific and teaching activities in covering the issues of financial management of small businesses.
Keywords :
Economics and national economy management; Small enterprises; Small business; Financial management; Regression analysis; Economic-mathematical modeling; Financial analysis; Financial forecasting; Benchmarking
Bibliography :
1. Blinov, A. O. Ecological development of small businesses, Strategii biznesa, 2015, No. 3, pp. 3–8 (in Russ.).
2. Didenko, V. Yu., Morozko, N. I. Evaluation of the efficiency of strategic financial management of small businesses, Ekonomika. Nalogi. Pravo, 2015, No. 2, pp. 94–100 (in Russ.).
3. Orlov, A. I. On some approaches t economic-mathematical modeling of small business, Politematicheskii setevoi elektronnyi nauchnyi zhurnal Kubanskogo gosudarstvennogo agrarnogo universiteta, 2015, No. 108, pp. 288–315 (in Russ.).
4. Small business in Russia: competition, planning, finance, risks, ed. E. N. Kravchenko, Vrotslav: Fond "Russko-pol'skii institute", 2015, 280 p. (in Russ.).
5. Fetisovova, E. et al. Finance of small and medium-sized enterprises, IURA EDITION, ISBN 80-89047-87-4. Bratislava, 2004.
6. Kalkan, A., Bozkurk, Ö.C. The choice and use of strategic planning tools and techniques in Turkish SMEs according to attitudes of executives, 9th International Strategic Management Conference, Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2013, No. 99, pp. 1016–1025.
7. Gică, O. A., Balint, C. I. Planning practices of SMEs in North-Western Region of Romania an empirical investigation, Emerging Markets Queries in Finance and Business, Procedia Economics and Finance, 2012, No. 3, pp. 896–901.
8. Ahiawodzi, K. A., Adade, T. C. Access to Credit and Growth of Small and Medium Scale Enterprises in the Ho Municipality of Ghana, British Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, November, 2012, vol. 6 (2), pp. 34–51.
9. Degryse, H., de Goeij, P., Kappert, P. The impact of firm and industry characteristics on small firms’ capital structure, Small Business Economics, 2012, vol. 38, No. 4, pp. 431–447.
10. Rakićević, Z., Omerbegović-Bijelović, J., Lečić-Cvetković, D. A model for effective planning of SME support services, Evaluation and Program Planning, 2016, vol. 54, pp. 30–40.
11. Koroleva, A. Malyi biznes priglashayut na birzhu (Small businesses are invited to the stock exchange), EkspertOnline, available at: http:// expert.ru/2016/12/13/msb/ (access date: 05.01.2017) (in Russ.).
12. Artamonov, N. V. Introduction to econometrics: lecture course, Moscow: MGIMO, 2010, 204 p. (in Russ.).
13. Beuselinck, S., Manigart, S. Financial Reporting Quality in Private Equity Backed Companies: The Impact of Ownership Concentration, Small Business Economics, 2007, vol. 29, No. 3, pp. 261–274.
14. Morozko, N. I. Methodology of forming the financial mechanism of providing the sustainability of small businesses functioning: doctoral (Economics) thesis, Moscow, 2008, 52 p. (in Russ.).
15. Mitsel', A. A., Telipenko, E. V. Evaluation of the influence of financial-economic indicators on sales proceeds, Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika, 2011, No. 27, pp. 57–64 (in Russ.).
16. Soroka, Ya. A. Concept of regression model elaboration for analyzing and forecasting the financial condition of industrial enterprises, Upravlenie ekonomicheskimi sistemami: elektronnyi nauchnyi zhurnal, 2012, No. 11 (47) (in Russ.).
17. Grigor'eva, S. V. Econometric analysis of financial condition of an automobile- road enterprise, Voprosy ekonomiki i prava, 2012, No. 6, pp. 135–138 (in Russ.).
18. Yakushev, A. A. Making managerial decisions basing on systemic approach and mathematical modelling, Sovremennye problemy nauki i obrazovaniya, 2012, No. 6, pp. 463–475 (in Russ.).
19. Orlova, I. V., Filonova, E. S. Selection of exogenic factors in regression model under multicolinearity of data, Mezhdunarodnyi zhurnal prikladnykh i fundamental'nykh issledovanii, 2015, No. 5–1, pp. 108–116 (in Russ.).
20. Orlova, I. V., Filonova, E. S. Econometric modeling of financial efficiency of enterprises in the “Communication” sector, Mezhdunarodnyi bukhgalterskii uchet, 2012, No. 43, pp. 22–24 (in Russ.).
21. Ivanov, A. V. Elaborating financial models for analysis of operational acivity of enterprises, Russia in New Socio-Economic and Political Realities: Problems and Prospects of Development: Works of International scientific-practical conference of Master degree students, 22 april 2015, Part 3, Saint Petersburg: Izd-vo SPbGEU, 2015, pp. 49–53 (in Russ.).
22. Nguyen, K. M. Financial management and profitability of small and medium enterprises: DBA thesis, Southern Cross University, Lismore NSW, 2001.
23. David, F. Moreira. The microeconomic impact on growth of SMEs when the access to finance widens: evidence from internet & high-tech industry. 19th International Conference Enterprise and Competitive Environment 2016, ECE 2016, 10–11 March 2016, Brno, Czech Republic, Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2016, No. 220, pp. 278–287.
24. Eliseeva, I. I., Kurysheva, S. V., Kosteeva, T. V. at al. Econometrics: textbook, Moscow: Finansy i statistika, 2007, 576 p. (in Russ.).
Citation :
Musienko S. O. Financial analysis and forecasting of the results of small businesses performance based on regression model, Actual Problems of Economics and Law, 2017, vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 18–33 (in Russ.). DOI: 10.21202/1993-047X.11.2017.1.18-33
Type of article : The scientific article
Date of receipt of the article :
24.11.2016
Date of adoption of the print :
18.02.2017
Date of online accommodation :
20.03.2017
