по-русски

Actual Problems of
Economics and Law

 

16+

 

DOI: 10.21202/1993-047X.09.2015.4.169-180

скачать PDF

Authors :
1. Elena V. Shirinkina, PhD (Economics), Associate Professor of the Chair of Personnel Management
Surgut State University of Khanty-Mansi Autonomous District, Surgut, Russia

2. Laisan A. Valiullina, PhD (Economics), Associate Professor of the Chair of Economics and Law
Surgut State Pedagogical University, Surgut, Russia



Formalization of the model of the enterprise insolvency risk prediction


Objective: to improve the conceptual apparatus and analytical procedures of insolvency risk identification.

Methods: general scientific methods of systemic and comparative analysis, economic-statistical and dynamic analysis of economic processes and phenomena.

Results: nowadays, managing the insolvency risk is relevant for any company regardless of the economy sector. Instability manifests itself through the uncertainty of the directions of the external environment changes and their high frequency. Analysis of the economic literature showed that currently there is no single approach to systematization of methods for insolvency risk prediction, which means that there is no objective view on tools that can be used to monitor the insolvency risk. In this respect, scientific and practical search of representative indicators for the formalization of the models predicting the insolvency is very important. Therefore, the study has solved the following tasks: defined the nature of the insolvency risk and its identification in the process of financial relations in management system, proved the representativeness of the indicators in the insolvency risk prediction, and formed the model of the risk insolvency prediction.

Scientific novelty: grounding the model of risk insolvency prediction.

Practical significance: development of a theoretical framework to address issues arising in the diagnosis of insolvent enterprises, and application of the results obtained in the practice of the bankruptcy institution bodies. The presented model allows to predict the insolvency risk of the enterprise through the general development trend and the fluctuation boundaries of bankruptcy risk; to determine the significance of each indicator-factor, its quantitative impact, and therefore, to avoid the risk of the enterprise insolvency.
 


Keywords :

risk; insolvency; inability to pay; prediction; bankruptcy; crisis; diagnosis


Bibliography :

1.  Dontsova, L. V., Nikiforova, N. A. Analiz finansovoi otchetnosti (Analysis of financial reporting): рraktikum. M.: Delo i Servis, 2004, 336 p.
2. Samoilov, V. A. Metody prognozirovaniya nesostoyatel'nosti predpriyatiya (bankrotstva) predpriyatii: rossiiskii opyt (Methods of predicting the insolvency (bankruptcy) of enterprises: Russian experience), аvailable at: http://sibac.info/ (accessed: 15.03.2015).
3. Davydova, G. V., Belikov, A. Yu. Metodika kolichestvennoi otsenki riska bankrotstva predpriyatii (Methodology of quantitative estimation of bankruptcy risk of an enterprise) // Upravlenie riskom, 1999, no. 3, pp. 13–20.
4. Mel'nikov, A. V. Risk-menedzhment: stokhasticheskii analiz v ekonomike finansov i strakhovanii (Risk management: stochastic analysis in the economics of finance and insurance). M.: Ankil, 2011, 140 p.
5. Abalkin, L. I. Ekonomicheskaya entsiklopediya (Encyclopedia on Economics). M.: Ekonomika, 1999, 1055 p.
6. Abchuk, V. A., Bunkin, V. D. Intensifikatsiya: prinyatie reshenii (Intensification: decision making). L.: Lenizdat, 1990, 174 p.
7. Lapusta, M. G., Sharshukova, L. G. Riski v predprinimatel'skoi deyatel'nosti (Risks in entrepreneurial activity). M.: Infra, 2009, 225 p.
8. Dudov, A. S., Shaduev, M. G. O novykh pokazatelyakh v prognozirovanii ekonomicheskikh protsessov (On the new indicators in predicting economic processes) // Prilozhenie k zhurnalu «Izvestiya vysshikh uchebnykh zavedenii. Severo-Kavkazskii region. Obshchestvennye nauki», 2010, no. 1, pp. 12–17.
9. Khaidarshina, G. A. Effektivnost' sovremennykh metodov otsenki riska bankrotstva predpriyatii v rossiiskoi praktike finansovogo menedzhmenta: logit- i SVM-modeli (Efficiency of modern methods of estimating the risk of bankruptcy) of enterprises in the Russian practice of financial management: logit- and SVM-models) // Ekonomicheskie nauki, 2008, no. 44, pp. 22–28.
10. Shelepov, A. M. Upravlenie riskami khozyaistvuyushchikh sub"ektov (Risk management of economic subjects): dis. … kand. ekon. nauk. Kostroma, 2005, 137 p.
11. Lobanova, E. D. Prognozirovanie s uchetom tsiklichnosti ekonomicheskogo rosta (Predicting with the account of cycles of economic growth) // Ekonomicheskie nauki, 2011, no. 1, pp. 12–19.
12. Stepanov, Yu. K. Prognozy i real'nost' (Prognoses and reality) // Voprosy ekonomiki, 1991, no. 1, pp. 86–97.
13. Bobryshev, A. N. Metody prognozirovaniya veroyatnosti bankrotstva organizatsii (Methods of predicting the probability of an enterprise’s bankruptcy), аvailable at: http://www.1-fin.ru/ (accessed: 26.11.2014).
14. L'vova, O. A. Bankrotstvo v sisteme rynochnykh otnoshenii (Bankruptcy in the system of market relations): avtoref. dis. … d-ra ekon. nauk: 08.00.05. M., 2012, 50 p.
15. Bankrotstvo predpriyatiya: analiz, uchet i prognozirovanie (Bankruptcy of an enterprise: analysis, account and predicting): ucheb. posobie  / K. V. Baldin, V. V. Belugina, S. N. Galditskaya, I. I. Perederyaev. M.: Dashkov i K, 2012, 223 p.
16. Evstropov, M. V. Otsenka vozmozhnostei prognozirovaniya bankrotstva predpriyatii v Rossii (Estimating the probability of predicting the enterprise’s bankruptcy in Russia) // Vestnik Orenburgskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. 2008, no. 4, pp. 56–60.
17. Taurova, T. A. Metodicheskie osnovy sistemy otsenki nesostoyatel'nosti yuridicheskikh lits (Methodological foundations of the system of estimating the insolvency of legal persons) // Nauchnye trudy Vol'nogo ekonomicheskogo obshchestva Rossii, vol. 69, 2006, pp. 521–525.
18. Vysotskaya, T. V. Sravnitel'nyi analiz metodov otsenki nesostoyatel'nosti predpriyatiya sel'skokhozyaistvennykh predpriyatii (Comparative analysis of methods of predicting the probability of insolvency of agricultural enterprises), аvailable at: http://ej.kubagro.ru/ (accessed: 26.02.2015).
19. Davydova, G. V., Belikov, A. Yu. Metodika kolichestvennoi otsenki riska bankrotstva predpriyatii (Methodology of quantitative evaluation of the risk of enterprises bankruptcy) // Upravlenie riskom, 1999, no. 3, pp. 13–20.
20. Kazakova, N. A. Diagnostika i prognozirovanie bankrotstva (Diagnosing and predicting of bankruptcy) // Finansovyi menedzhment, 2009, no. 6, pp. 18–25.
21. Evstropov, M. V. Prognozirovanie nastupleniya bankrotstva predpriyatii na osnove bukhgalterskoi otchetnosti (Predicting the enterprises bankruptcy basing on accounting reports) // Bukhgalterskii uchet, 2010, no. 3, pp. 18–24.
22.  Danilova, Yu. Bankrotstvo kompanii: problemy prognozirovaniya (Bankruptcy of companies: problems of predicting) // Problemy teorii i praktiki upravleniya, 2009, no. 9, p. 66.
23. Zharkovskaya, E. P., Brodskii, B. E. Antikrizisnoe upravlenie (Anti-crisis management). M.: Infra-M, 2014, 514 p.
 


Citation :

 Shirinkina, E. V., Valiullina, L. A. Formalization of the model of the enterprise insolvency risk prediction // Actual Problems of Economics and Law, 2015, no. 4, pp. 169–180.
 


Type of article : The scientific article

Date of receipt of the article :
21.09.2015

Date of adoption of the print :
03.11.2015

Date of online accommodation :
15.01.2016